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This is a concept development lesson that is designed to assess how well students understand the concepts of:

• Equally likely events
• Randomness
• Sample size

The central theme of the lesson is to address common misconceptions relating to probability. The main activity is to evaluate a series of eight statements about probability and determine if they are true or false.

Some of the statements test early understanding of probability, an example being:

‘There are three outcomes in a soccer match: win, lose, or draw. The probability of winning is therefore one third.’

Some of the statements require a more advanced knowledge of probability, and in particular familiarity with combined events, an example being:

‘Scoring a total of three with two number cubes is twice as likely as scoring a total of two.’

There are pre-lesson and post-lesson formative assessment tasks. Detailed teacher notes give suggestions on questioning and how to use the resources. Full solutions are given for each of the sections.

This is a concept development lesson from the Mathematics Assessment Resource Service, a collaboration between UC Berkeley and the Shell Centre team at the University of Nottingham. Further information on the collection is given here.

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