Probability
In the Biology GCSE subject content, students are required to understand and use the concept of probability in predicting the outcomes of genetic crosses.
Some student’s misunderstand that when an event can either happen or not happen, for example rain or not rain, then the probability will always be 0.5. Use examples to challenge this misconception.
Be careful about expressing probability as odds. The probability of an event happening is defined as:
P(x) = (Chances for) / (Total chances)
For example, the probability of drawing an Queen in a single pack of 52 cards is 4/52 = 1/13
Odds, on the other hand, are given as (Chances for) : (Chances against)
Therefore probabilities must only be written as fractions, decimals or percentages.
Pupils need to be clear about what it means if an event is independent. For example some students may think that if they toss a head 10 times with a fair coin that this will have an impact on the probability of throwing a head next time.
Many pupils and adults have misconceptions relating to risk and chance. Language used in the media often lack clarity or accuracy and reinforces this. Make clear links between the idea of risk and probability and make links to examples specific to science. Plan questions to establish what pupils do and do not see clearly. Students could be given the opportunity to conduct risk analysis for simple everyday activities. Provide scientific examples of how a calculated risk may compare to resulting outcomes. Use examples of where a poor understanding of risk has been used by the media to confuse people.
Mathsland National Lottery
This is not a science example but well known examples like the lottery are useful for bringing any misconceptions to the surface. You may find you need to state the obvious, explain what is known and what is being predicted and be careful about the language you use.
Statistical Shorts
Explore how probability can be used to inform the confidence of our future forecasts. So for example if the probability of a team winning a game of football is 1/3rd this does not mean they will win every third match.
This link suggest some statistical statements that can be used to check for misconceptions about probability. Students need to decide if the statements are usually true, or almost always true, or almost never true? If they are always true or never true, give convincing reasons why that is the case. Encourage them to be clear about your statistical assumptions in each case.
This resource includes:
· a teachers guide which includes a description of why to use this problems and suggested strategies for how to use it in the classroom. Key questions and suggestions for support and challenge.
· guidance on how to get stared
· solutions many of which are sent in by students from schools using the resources.
· there are also links to activities you can use to prepare or extend this one.
Risk in real life
Students need to understanding the balance between the probability an event will happen against the implications of that event happening. This article provides some interesting reading that could suggest questions that could be shared with students.
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Investigating Epidemics
This activity explores why epidemics take off and would link well to the Biology content on Health, disease and the development of medicines. It explores some simple models to help students understand what's going on, and how science can help us to prevent epidemics happening in the first place. The teacher’s resources include a possible approach including key questions and additional links to other websites. It also includes guidance for non-specialist including an outline of how probability is a key mathematical skill required for this project.
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Genetics
This resource looks at the use of probability as a means of making predictions based the transmission of inherited disease.